Hybrid Forecasting Competition (HFC)

Seth Goldstein – The HFC program seeks to develop and test hybrid geopolitical forecasting systems. These systems will integrate human and machine forecasting components to create maximally accurate, flexible, and scalable forecasting capabilities. Human- generated forecasts may be subject to cognitive biases and/or scalability limits. More

Human-generated forecasts may be subject to cognitive biases and/or scalability limits. Machine-generated (i.e., statistical, computational) forecasting approaches may be more scalable and data-driven, but are often ill-suited to render forecasts for idiosyncratic or newly emerging geopolitical issues. Hybrid approaches hold promise for combining the strengths of these two approaches while mitigating their individual weaknesses. More

Performers will develop systems that will integrate human and machine forecasting contributions in novel ways. These systems will compete in a multi-year competition to identify approaches that may enable the Intelligence Community (IC) to radically improve the accuracy and timeliness of geopolitical forecasts. More